Forecasting 2009

[KIRBYMD]

Tom, all I can say after that is "WOW". I think it's important that we are all to be as positive and yet as realistic as possible. We have had it pretty good the last few years and we have all heard what goes up must come down, well it's our turn now. This is why they pay us "the big bucks"; to do our jobs. It's not going to be easy, but if you go into it with a whipped attitude then thats what type of results you are going to get. We have all seen tough times before, we got through them and survived, we can do it again. Granted it's going to be an uphill battle. Now I don't want this to sound like a big "RAH RAH" speech, but I do think there are two things that we need to keep in mind going into 2009 and that is "be positive" and "be realistic". If we don't have that then we better get out of the game.

[TheOne]

I have never seen a need, or had any desire to defend a position by Tom until today. Unfortunately he is more correct than even I would like to believe. The fact that his post paints doom and gloom does not in any way suggest that he has given up. If you take a second look at what he wrote there are several points that predict opportunity for those of us in the parts and service businesses. I think his real point was that a valid forecast is predicated on a reasonably stable market environment, or at the very least a predictable market. Our current moment in time, and the huge pressures on our economy in general and our industry in particular makes for too many variables in the equation to forecast with any accuracy.......
That about get it Tom?

So do we sit here like deer in the headlights, or what? I for one suggest multiple forecasts that base from traffic counts and assume market conditions are going to pressure the counts down 20% to 30%. Build a plan to counter the loss of traffic and then re-forecast with the anticipated result.

Chas has some very good ideas of what to consider when buildning your forecasts as well

[bsilcox]

Here it Comes! Come on everybody get real this is the BEST Time in a long time for FIXED Ops. They are not selling the vehicles so that means we need to service them! If you THINK that the Feds are going to let the Detroit 3 go under THINK again! There are way to many TAX Payers in the Auto Business to let that happen! Get your collective Heads out of your **** and get to work! Take care of the real BOSS the paying public! Wake UP! It's Great Out Here in Retail Land!!

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Fixed Ops Rhino

[This message has been edited by bsilcox (edited 11-11-2008).]

[KIRBYMD]

Here Here bsilcox!!! Very well stated!!!

[Tyler Robbins]

BSilcox has certainly grasped the reality of these times.

Bottom line, and history has proven it many times, is that when New Vehicles sales are off, Fixed Operations reaps the benefits.

Obviously, if "older" vehicles aren't replaced, they need to be maintained and repaired.

Sure, when building your forecasts, you cannot rely on as many PDI's as you would have last year, but who cares... Which Shop wouldn't prefer to have a 5 yr old car in the bay instead of a brand new one??

If your customer retention is weak or down, dont blame the economy - look in the mirror... those older vehicles will stay on the road and someone is going to maintain and repair them!!

History has also proven that when New Vehicle Sales are down, Used Vehicle sales experience an increase - that means reconditioning increases need to be factored into your forecasts, unless of course, your operation isn't realizing those used vehicle increases, in which case, again - someone is realizing those increases - if it isn't you - again... dont blame the economy.

When building the forecasts for 2009 - the reality is, you aren't going to do the typical 10% increase over last year, you are genuinely going to have to perform some serious math...

[Gene]

Okay guys. Stand back and ask yourself if you could improve your retention rates. If sales were to sell 100 cars total every month if you moved your retention 10 points would that be enough to increase or maintain in 2009. I am very nervous going into 2009 but I gotta aggree with bsilcox. We are not service people any more we are sales people. We need sales managers and retention managers in fixed ops. Lets roll!

[Lhansen]

Gene had a great comment. "We are all salespeople now." Always have been and always will be,as far as I'm concerned, when it comes to service. Now is the time to focus on retaining your customers! If you're not hosting new owner clinics, now is certainly the time to start. Think outside the box and you will see an increase in your service business.
Make sure YOU, as the Service Manager or Director, always have a positive attitude. YOU can not afford to get into the doom and gloom conversations that are taking place in your dealership!

Linda

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Linda Graham Hansen
Auto Dealer Focus
www.autodealerfocus.com