2004 Objectives - Forcasts

[flyboy]

I am curious as to how many service managers actually make forcasts or objectives.

Many I know simply take last years figures, for whatever their GM is focused on, (GP,Net etc) and add another 10% or so. What I am really interested in are those that have set some forcasts based on real projections and how you went about setting those figures.

[Michael White]

Forecasting is an interesting subject. To styart, you have to know where you have been, and why you were there, in order to start the first steps that I do. To start, I use an EXCEL spread sheet. Doing a forecast takes me about 3 minutes. All sales are ratioed to labor in the long run, and labor is a function of effective labor rates and hours available. For my spread sheet, all I have to know is how many techs i will have per day, less vacations, averages for sick leave, etc. (Again averages). Ratios of parts to labors, to sublets are surprisingly simuliar. After you have your spread sheet built, based on averages from your last year, figure out how many days a month, program estimated labor rate changes, labor % comparisons, average parts cost changes. then think about or plot your your effective labor rates, changes in warranty or PDI (big changes with GM sport utilities due to running boards already installed). Think about effective ways to increase your business. Break it down to daily sales/hours. think about trends in car/truck sales and plot changes. I.E. GM car line sales are dropping like rocks, but truck sales will be an increase. Know your market. If you are in a growth area, you will grow as well. If you are in a depressed area, chances are you will be flat or possible going down. Spreadsheet everything with costs and effects. Then you can estimate the number of techs needed, etc. I have been extremely close with this kind of forecasting. You could spend a couple of hours developing your spread sheet, an hour or so plotting all the changes, and another hour plugging in the numbers. Its easier to forecast sales related items. Some of your costs of doing business can vary significantly. However, if you can forecast sales and gross, you can then forecast/observe what you costs of business need to be to maintain whatever profit you want. My spreadsheet has about 100 plus formuals in it, but all I have to do is type in the number of techs, number of days, estiamted vacations, estimated sickness and its done. To make it more accurate, it is helpful to have your office do one time charges at the end of the month on completed repairs so the hours sold are more accurate and predictable. then when you finish a month, add to your spreadsheet the actuals and observe why they are different if they are.It is amaizing the info and understanding you can get from this.

[flyboy]

Michael, would you be interested in sharing that spreadsheet?

[Robert a Bamert jr]

I too would be very interested in your spreadsheet idea. I made a good one for tech times wk to month and flat to actual i would be willing to trade.

[Michael White]

Guys, I do not like to share my EXCEL programs. However, I would be morew than glad to assist you in setting up yours. You must be proficient in EXCEL and calculations. E mail me if you want help with a basic outline of how I do it.

[Michael White]

Flyboy,

I tried sending you an email. came back multiple times. Is it listed correclty


robert, I sent you one. did you get it

[flyboy]

Whoops, had an old address in there, it is updated now.

[Robert a Bamert jr]

Mike, you have no email address in your profile to answer you. I din't receive any mail from you. I can understand your point of not giving out some information. The basic outline would work if your ok with that I can work the rest out myself, and let me know if you would still like the spreadsheet I offered in exchange.